PSX Broker Research

Inflation & Monetary Policy: SBP to Hike Policy Rate by 50 bps; Oct-26 NCPI Expected at 9.4%

Optimus expects the SBP to raise the policy rate by 50bps and projects Oct-26 headline inflation at ~9.4% YoY (+0.9% MoM), driven by a 2.6% MoM rise in the energy index as motor fuel and LPG prices climb, while food prices stay flat. It flags downside risk to the 4.0% FY27 GDP target, possibly to ~3.6%.

• Optimus expects the SBP to raise the policy rate by 50bps
• Oct-26 headline inflation projected at ~9.4% YoY, +0.9% MoM, on a 2.6% MoM energy rise

EFERT: Corporate analyst briefing takeaways

At Engro Fertilizers' briefing, 3QCY26 consolidated earnings rose 57% YoY to Rs9.1bn (EPS Rs6.83) on a 45% rise in topline to Rs79.6bn, with a Rs5.50 DPS (YTD Rs9.25). EFERT's market share rose to 38%, while debt rose to Rs79bn on working capital needs. DAP prices of Rs17,000/bag constrained demand, but supportive crop prices and a possible wheat support price above Rs4,000/40kg should help.

• EFERT 3QCY26 EPS Rs6.83, PAT up 57% YoY; DPS Rs5.50
• Market share up to 38%; debt up to Rs79bn

EPS

Rs 9.72

YoY

+73%

DPS

-

5 houses expected Rs 7.78 at the median · +24.9% vs filed EPS, above all 5 houses

Latest 23-Oct-2026, 7:20 pm PKT

EPS

Rs 0.05

YoY

+278%

DPS

-

Latest 23-Oct-2026, 7:13 pm PKT

EFERT - 3QCY26 Analyst Briefing Takeaways

At its 3QCY26 analyst briefing, Engro Fertilizers recalled EPS of PkR6.8 (up 57% YoY) and a PkR5.50/share dividend (81% payout), with management committed to healthy payouts. Urea sales rose to 711k tons (38% market share) and DAP sales to 43k tons (15% share); management expects CY26 industry urea demand of ~6.5mn tons and DAP of ~1.3mn tons, plans no discounts, and flagged continued pressure on DAP margins. Phase 2 of the PEF project is expected by 1QCY27, and AKD maintains BUY with a Dec'26 TP of PkR264/sh.

• EFERT 3QCY26 EPS PkR6.8, up 57% YoY, with a PkR5.50/share dividend (81% payout)
• Urea market share rose to 38%; management sees CY26 urea demand of ~6.5mn tons and plans no discounts

Pakistan Weekly Update – Market Remains Subdued Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

AHL's weekly update says the KSE-100 fell 2.4% WoW to 162,375 points on persistent geopolitical uncertainty, with banks, technology and investment banks the main drags. It notes FY26 GDP growth revised to 3.65%, 5% YoY higher Sep'26 power generation, the proposed Auto Policy 2026-31, and SBP reserves of US$21.49bn. AHL expects the 26-Oct MPC meeting and the September-quarter results to drive the market, sees the KSE-100 at a P/E of 7.02x and 7.0% dividend yield, and lists OGDC, PPL, FFC, LUCK, MLCF, NBP, PSO, DGKC, ENGROH, AKBL and NPL as top picks.

• KSE-100 fell 2.4% WoW to 162,375 on geopolitical uncertainty, led by banks, technology and investment banks
• AHL sees the 26-Oct MPC meeting and September-quarter results driving the market

Pakistan Equity | Wahdat Poultry Farm (WAHDAT) | Result Preview (Oct 23, 2026)

Topline expects Wahdat Poultry Farm to post 1QFY27 profit of Rs117mn (EPS Rs0.35). Net sales are seen at Rs1.7bn with gross margin of 17.2%, above FY26's 15.1% as input-cost relief sustains, taking gross profit to Rs299mn. Operating profit is expected at Rs179mn (10.3% margin), with finance cost of Rs26mn and an effective tax rate of 22.0%.

• Topline expects WAHDAT to post 1QFY27 profit of Rs117mn (EPS Rs0.35)
• Net sales seen at Rs1.7bn with gross margin of 17.2%, up from 15.1% in FY26 on input-cost relief

Pakistan Economy: MPC preview: 50bps hike to keep real rates positive

Foundation expects the MPC to raise the policy rate by 50bps to 12.0% at its 26-Oct-26 meeting, after three holds at 11.5% since the 100bps hike in Apr'26. It cites persistent above-target inflation from oil volatility amid the Middle East war, rising inflation expectations, a thin real rate (~1.3% on 1QFY27 inflation) and a pickup in growth; a hike would lift the ex-post real rate to ~2.5% on its Oct'26 estimate. FSL sees Oct'26 CPI at 9.5% YoY (1.0% MoM), from 10.3% in Sep'26, and keeps its FY27 average inflation forecast at 8.8%. FX reserves of US$21.5bn (3.0 months of imports) are boosted by the Eurobond, but one-year external liabilities still exceed them and the current account deficit is seen at 1.0% of GDP in FY27.

• Foundation expects a 50bps hike to 12.0% at the 26-Oct-26 MPC to keep real rates positive
• Oct'26 CPI seen at 9.5% YoY (1.0% MoM), down from 10.3% in Sep'26; FY27 average kept at 8.8%

AHL Brief Note - Fertilizer: Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) Analyst Briefing Takeaways (3QCY26)

At EFERT's analyst briefing on 23-Oct-26, the company reported 3QCY26 EPS of PKR6.80 with a PKR5.50/share dividend (~80% payout), and management said it will keep distributing a significant share of earnings while holding a buffer for GIDC-related liabilities (PKR19.6bn provision maintained). A wheat support price above ~PKR4,000/maund is tentatively indicated for Rabi 2026-27. International urea eased to ~US$450/ton from a ~US$900/ton peak while DAP stays near ~US$910/ton. Management expects the urea market at ~6.5mn tons and DAP at ~1.3mn tons in CY26, with no plans to reintroduce discounts in 4QCY26. S&D expenses rose to PKR7.0bn from PKR3.4bn on higher fuel costs. AHL notes EFERT trades at CY26e/CY27f P/E of 10.8x/8.0x.

• EFERT paid PKR5.50/share for 3QCY26 (~80% payout on EPS of PKR6.80) and plans to keep high payouts with a GIDC buffer
• Management sees the CY26 urea market at ~6.5mn tons and DAP at ~1.3mn tons, with no 4QCY26 discounts planned

Pakistan Equity | Flash Note | Engro Fertilizers - EFERT (Oct 23, 2026)

EFERT 3Q2026 corporate briefing takeaways: urea sales rose 21% YoY to 721k tons and DAP sales 2.7x to 37k tons; management expects industry urea sales of ~6.5mn tons and DAP of ~1.3mn tons in 2026, will not reintroduce discounts, and keeps its dividend policy unchanged despite higher borrowings for the Pressure Enhancement Facility. EFERT reported 3Q2026 consolidated EPS of Rs6.83. Topline maintains BUY at 2026E P/E of 8.3x and an 11% dividend yield.

• EFERT urea sales up 21% YoY to 721k tons in 3Q2026
• Management sees 2026 industry urea sales of ~6.5mn tons; no discounts to return

EFERT | 3QCY26 Corporate Briefing Takeaways

IIS takeaways from Engro Fertilizers' 3QCY26 briefing: EFERT's urea market share rose to 38% from 17% QoQ and it holds about 80% of industry urea inventory. Dealer margins are PKR225/bag; the lower payout is a buffer against GIDC liabilities.

• EFERT urea market share rose to 38% from 17% QoQ
• EFERT holds about 80% of industry urea inventory

Flashnote: Fertilizer – Engro Fertilizers Limited (EFERT) - Corporate Briefing

At EFERT's 3QCY26 corporate briefing, management highlighted better farm economics as maize (~PKR2,400/maund, +14% YoY) and cotton (~PKR8,400/maund, +18% YoY) prices rose, with the wheat support price expected to rise above ~PKR4,000/maund for Rabi 2026-27. Input costs rose as DAP prices climbed 25% YoY to PKR17,000/bag. EFERT's urea market share slipped to 28% in 9MCY26 from 30%, while DAP share rose to 15% from 5% but with sharply lower margins. Management expects urea sales of ~6.5mn tons and DAP 1.3mn tons by year end, and said payout should stay below 100% given GIDC uncertainty, higher input costs and weaker expected Rabi demand. 3QCY26 profit rose 14% YoY on higher volumes, discount roll-back and a one-off SIDC re-measurement gain.

• EFERT expects payout to stay below 100% on GIDC uncertainty, higher input costs and weaker expected Rabi demand
• Urea market share slipped to 28% in 9MCY26 from 30%; DAP share rose to 15% from 5% but DAP margins fell sharply

EFERT | Corporate Briefing Session 3QCY26

At EFERT's 3QCY26 analyst briefing, the company reported earnings of PkR9,125mn (EPS PkR6.83, up 57% YoY) with a PkR5.5/share dividend. EFERT gained 38% market share in 3QCY26 despite premium pricing. Management flagged ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions keeping freight and insurance costs high; international urea eased to ~US$450/ton from a US$900/ton peak, while DAP stayed high at ~US$910/ton. Better crop prices supported farmer economics, though DAP rose to PkR17,000/bag, and a wheat support price above PkR4,000/40kg is indicated for Rabi 2026-27. Phase 2 of the Pressure Enhancement Facility should be operational by 1QCY27. KTrade has a Buy rating with a Dec'26 target price of PkR239.

• EFERT 3QCY26 EPS PkR6.83, up 57% YoY, with a PkR5.5/share dividend
• KTrade rates EFERT Buy with a Dec'26 target price of PkR239; stock at PkR194 and P/E 10.5x

Insight—Power Sector — 1QFY27 Result Previews

Taurus expects NPL to post 1QFY27 PAT of PKR1,053mn (EPS PKR2.97), up 80% YoY/28% QoQ, on revenue of ~PKR8.4bn (4x YoY) from higher plant utilization and a ~28% QoQ rise in share of profit from associates (~PKR942mn Nexgen Auto, ~PKR222mn Rafhan Maize). NCPL is projected at PAT PKR1,041mn (EPS PKR2.83), up 16% QoQ, on net sales of ~PKR7.2bn. Both are expected to announce a PKR2.0/sh cash dividend. Taurus expects higher load factors ahead as RLNG supply constraints lift CPPA-G procurement, with profitability also supported by Rafhan Maize and new NexGen Auto launches.

• Taurus expects NPL 1QFY27 EPS of PKR2.97 (PAT PKR1,053mn, up 80% YoY/28% QoQ) and a PKR2.0/sh dividend
• NCPL 1QFY27 EPS projected at PKR2.83 (PAT PKR1,041mn, up 16% QoQ), also with a PKR2.0/sh dividend

MUREB – FY26 Analyst Briefing Takeaways

At its FY26 corporate briefing Murree Brewery reported earnings of PkR3.8bn (EPS PkR137.0), up 16% YoY, with a PkR41.5/sh dividend for the year. Net sales grew 12% YoY to PkR32.0bn, led by PMFL (+18%) and non-alcoholic beverages (+16%), while gross margin slipped to 25.1% from 25.8% on raw material costs. The 130tpd glass furnace (PkR1.4bn capex to date) should start in 3QFY27, new PET and PMFL filling lines are planned, and management expects double-digit beverage growth in FY27. AKD notes the scrip is not under formal coverage.

• MUREB FY26 EPS PkR137.0, up 16% YoY, with a PkR41.5/sh dividend for the year
• Net sales up 12% YoY to PkR32.0bn, led by PMFL (+18%) and non-alcoholic beverages (+16%)

ATBA – FY26 Analyst Briefing Takeaways

At its FY26 analyst briefing Atlas Battery reported a net loss of PkR371mn (LPS PkR10.6) versus a PkR91mn profit (EPS PkR2.6) in FY25, as revenue slipped 1% YoY to PkR34.9bn and gross margin contracted to 8.5% from 11.3%. Management cited demand shifting to smaller batteries, lithium-ion competition in storage and higher duties on imported lead, and expects margins to stay under pressure. Exports rose 18.2% YoY to PkR0.7bn, and local lithium-ion assembly with a Tier-1 foreign partner is planned for early CY27. AKD notes the scrip is not under formal coverage.

• ATBA posted an FY26 net loss of PkR371mn (LPS PkR10.6) vs a PkR91mn profit (EPS PkR2.6) in FY25
• Gross margin contracted to 8.5% from 11.3%; management expects margins to stay under pressure

EPS

Rs 0.47

YoY

+23%

DPS

Rs 0.00

Latest 23-Oct-2026, 3:22 pm PKT

Cement Retail Prices Weekly Update

Taurus's weekly PBS-based retail cement price table shows the North region average at PKR1,611/bag for the week ended 22-Oct-26, down 0.5% WoW but up 17.7% YoY. The South average was PKR1,571/bag, up 0.1% WoW and 9.0% YoY. Bannu (-3.2%), Rawalpindi (-2.4%) and Islamabad (-2.0%) saw the largest weekly declines, while Peshawar rose 2.1%.

• North retail cement average fell 0.5% WoW to PKR1,611/bag in the week ended 22-Oct-26, but is up 17.7% YoY
• South average rose 0.1% WoW to PKR1,571/bag, up 9.0% YoY